Population Growth

City Economic Simulation DLC for Capitalism Lab
Spac3y
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Population Growth

Post by Spac3y »

Not sure whats happened in 4.0.9B but the population growth is sucking !

Im around 35 years in and the population in cities that started at 5-600k is only near 750k atm. Turning over 15.5bn with a crica 2.5bn profit, and cities are barely growing ? Is their a bug with the default start out cities ?

Not sure if 550+ difficulty is the issue or if its the default cities :) But would still expect cities to grow alot quicker.

(Durban is very new only about 4-5 years and its growing ok, but this is a city I started).
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durban latest city double civic buildings 50k growth a year tops.png
durban latest city double civic buildings 50k growth a year tops.png (1.69 MiB) Viewed 3717 times
population.png
population.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 3717 times
turnove 15.5bn.png
turnove 15.5bn.png (2.23 MiB) Viewed 3717 times
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eleaza
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Re: Population Growth

Post by eleaza »

Have you see the discussion in this thread?

http://www.capitalismlab.com/forum/view ... =16&t=3868

What we found is that building a lot of universities and increase industry competitiveness across all product classes would increase job opening, and lowering the unemployment, hence the immigration can continue. I already has a city over 1 million in 2005 in just 15 years with 4.2.09B. And it's a population growth from 2004 (the first election) to 2015, around 50k to 60k every year can grow a city from 500k to 1 million in 10 years.
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eleaza
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Re: Population Growth

Post by eleaza »

And here are screenshots and save file you can check. In 2005, the population is 1 million, and I excessively built 15 universities in that city. It's quality of life is nearly maxed out over 97. Even my completely new city Baltimore already has over 400k population.
2005.zip
(6.7 MiB) Downloaded 99 times
2005 1 million population.jpg
2005 1 million population.jpg (612.22 KiB) Viewed 3673 times
2005 Baltimore.jpg
2005 Baltimore.jpg (761.39 KiB) Viewed 3673 times
I'm still trying to see how fast I can grow a city to 2 million population (I estimate might be another 15 years before 2020). And see if I can reach 3 million. The interesting thing is I still have no idea why sometimes the immigration is higher, but sometimes lower (generally between 50k to 70k), and this city doesn't always has the most immigration. There must be some factors I haven't figured out affecting population growth.
E is for Endear, all cute and cuddly
L is for Luxury, longing for splendid
E is for Elate, making others happy
A is for Amenable, a serene nature
Z is for Zeal, zest for wonderful life
A is for Admirers, all of you love me
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Spac3y
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Re: Population Growth

Post by Spac3y »

I am wondering what difficulty level you are playing on Eleeazza and also if you are starting cities from scratch or building from the stock ones at the start of the game as whilist I can get the cities to grow, I cannot get them to grow anywhere near the speed you can.

576% difficulty here.
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eleaza
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Re: Population Growth

Post by eleaza »

Spac3y wrote:I am wondering what difficulty level you are playing on Eleeazza and also if you are starting cities from scratch or building from the stock ones at the start of the game as whilist I can get the cities to grow, I cannot get them to grow anywhere near the speed you can.

576% difficulty here.
I don't think difficulty play much role in growing a city, difficulty has more to do with player owned corporation's profit, not city growth. As to how long, see this reply

http://www.capitalismlab.com/forum/view ... 901#p17746

The key is to keep the city to have job-opening constantly, with unemployment rate at minimum 2%. To achieve that, build universities early on to get industries competitiveness high (and use media firms for smaller starting towns, to get initial job opening boost, etc). Also using landmarks to boost competitiveness and lower civic building running cost to balance the city budget. Since the higher the quality of life, the higher natural population grow, 100 QoL can boost growth to maximum. Civic building's location convenience need to be very high as well, best to be 100% coverage, except the difficult ones like large sports facilities, and it's best to lower apartment rent to raise housing quality, as well as make sure supply/demand indexes for all civic buildings are constantly above 100. You'll need to intervene all aspect of the city management, AI mayors do very poor job in planning or running cities.

The first city in survival mode without a developed city would definitely be slower in growth (I think about 5 to 6 years delay for building food/goods supply high enough, depending on players/AIs expansion ability), but for cities in non-survival mode, and elected as a mayor in first election, it wouldn't be difficult to grow a city like in my save, regardless difficulties.
E is for Endear, all cute and cuddly
L is for Luxury, longing for splendid
E is for Elate, making others happy
A is for Amenable, a serene nature
Z is for Zeal, zest for wonderful life
A is for Admirers, all of you love me
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Spac3y
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Re: Population Growth

Post by Spac3y »

Well Circa 27 years in and the population of this city for example has only gone up by 250K people
QOL doesnt look to bad at all
QOL doesnt look to bad at all
qos.png (2.05 MiB) Viewed 3609 times
Plenty jobs going
job openings.png
job openings.png (2.14 MiB) Viewed 3609 times

Only 16K people imgrating a year
imigratiuon.png
imigratiuon.png (2.12 MiB) Viewed 3609 times
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eleaza
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Re: Population Growth

Post by eleaza »

Spac3y wrote:Well Circa 27 years in and the population of this city for example has only gone up by 250K people

Plenty jobs going

Only 16K people imgrating a year
First of all, the Quality of Life (QoL) in your city isn't very good, From the looks of individual ratings, I would imagine the civic building location convenience (coverage) and supply/demand indexes for most civic buildings aren't very good (in my city, QoL is nearly 100, at least above 95 the whole time). QoL affects the natural growth rate a lot (comparably, in your graph, the natural growth rate is negative 1.12%, only immigrants pull up population growth). Also the city needs to have higher real wage rate comparably to other cities (I feel this somewhat important, but not indicating in the tooltip, health economy status affects immigration, like I have constant booming for decades the whole time, while in your city, it's in recession, GDP needs to be growing all the time to keep good economic status).

Second, the job opening really isn't that high either (due to excessive media buildings to provide jobs in your city than due to high industry competitiveness perhaps?), in my city the job-opening is at the level of hundreds of thousands due to very high industry competitiveness. Also in your graph, the job opening is only recently shooting up (even start to trend down). I feel there's some kind of a delay affecting immigration with various factors, it won't go up immediately, but slowly changes its tendency overtime (like utilization changes I suppose). Besides, there seems to be certain random fluctuations in immigration (like the stock market price fluctuations), I can get a 50k growth the previous year, 90k this year, and then 70k the next, but on average it's 70k.

Third, the supply for residentials in your graph shows it just barely meets the demand. (You can even see in your graph the immigration started to go up the same time unemployment dropped to 2% all the way to 45k, but slowly went down as the supply of apartments dried up). I feel there's a need to have at least the amount available equivalent to the intended immigrations, and new apartments' overall rating need to be good enough for immigration to rush in (like I would put them at most 80% to current market rent price, and have good access to civic and sport facilities). In my city I always kept the supply/demand index for apartments above 10, even 20 all the time.

I am not sure about the effect of policies to population growth, like consumer tax, I keep it at 0% to promote consumption, even lowering the individual income tax, as well as corporate profit tax. However, I feel they are not directly affecting population growth, but more indirectly strengthen the economy and in term better GDP, and higher income, better QoL, more government income for civic buildings, etc. In the very late game when I have 25 universities with full 3 million budget each, promoting all product classes, the government spendings are extremely high, especially in education.

And finally be aware of the power of exponentials. Like compound interests, a slight difference in population growth over time greatly affects how fast it reaches certain benchmark (like in your graph there are even some years with very little, even negative population growth, with "emigration" to pull down growth for many years). Just do a calculation of (1.02)^30, and (1.03)^30, the first one of 2% growth only reaches 1.8 times of the original value in 30 years, but the latter one with 3% reaches 2.4 times in the same period. With just a few improvements from the start, the later difference is significant.
E is for Endear, all cute and cuddly
L is for Luxury, longing for splendid
E is for Elate, making others happy
A is for Amenable, a serene nature
Z is for Zeal, zest for wonderful life
A is for Admirers, all of you love me
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Spac3y
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Re: Population Growth

Post by Spac3y »

I have no problems with cities I build , 5years and Im at 500k population with those, and QOL is pretty much the same as the town I posted so QOL isnt really an issue on the new towns, so this is why I dont understand how the cities i started with are not improving when QOL is pretty much the same as the cities Ive built.
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eleaza
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Re: Population Growth

Post by eleaza »

Spac3y wrote:I have no problems with cities I build , 5years and Im at 500k population with those, and QOL is pretty much the same as the town I posted so QOL isnt really an issue on the new towns, so this is why I dont understand how the cities i started with are not improving when QOL is pretty much the same as the cities Ive built.
First, it is technically impossible for a new city to reach from 0 to 500k in 5 years, a city with less than 500k population has a 50k per year immigration limit, at most in theory you can only get 5x50k = 250k in 5 years (and this is not practically possible in any way). Or do I misunderstand something you said?

The value of QoL affects "NATURAL population growth", not total population growth, and some individual factors are more important than others, you can even have a city with emigration and still reaches 70+ QoL in total weighted sum, it will obviously be very different from a city without emigration, but have similar weighted sum (this is very similar to "overall rating" in a product, you need to have good overall rating obviously, the higher the better, but individual factors matter, and the composition of the value matters).

There are many other factors (like job-opening, houses supply, GDP growth, etc), involved in a city's REAL population growth, which is NATURAL growth + Immigration - Emigration. As I listed previously, population is not a single factor determines all thing, and from what little information you provided, as I mentioned in the previous reply, the issue in the city you posted slowed down in immigration is mostly due to lack of houses I would say. (The other factors affects everything from the beginning make that city grew slower comparably to "MY CITY", since that's your original question, isn't it). And since I don't know what' are the conditions in your other cities, so I can not tell what's really going on with them.

If you think there's something wrong with population growth in your cities, you can post your save file, pinpoint the exact issue, so David can also help look into it. I can only help so much with what I think the issues are from my own experiences, and it is possible some of my conclusions are wrong (but from all the games I played I can grow my population to 2 millions, I think the factors I listed are generally very important, but I might miss something where some unknown factors are also crucial)
E is for Endear, all cute and cuddly
L is for Luxury, longing for splendid
E is for Elate, making others happy
A is for Amenable, a serene nature
Z is for Zeal, zest for wonderful life
A is for Admirers, all of you love me
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Spac3y
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Re: Population Growth

Post by Spac3y »

5 should have been 15 years , missed the 1 hehehehe.

Save Game attached :)

Ill have a tinker about, perhaps it is housing but as long as the demand index is positive then there should still be enough housing to move into.
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AUTO.zip
Save Game
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